Coffee Market Desk

Settles from ICE via Yahoo Finance, US cents/lb. The front is the desk's rolled series (it moves to the next contract at first notice), so Mar 27 − front compares Mar 27 with whichever contract was front that day. Below zero = backwardation (the later contract is cheaper): the market pays for coffee now rather than later. A spread rising toward zero, or its 20-day average turning up, means the squeeze on nearby coffee is easing. May 27 − Mar 27 is the next step along the curve. Steps in Mar 27 − front at each first notice day are the front changing contract; the 20-day averages smooth through them. Gaps in past notice periods are days whose front contract had expired before the desk stored it (it now keeps six listed months). The contracts move on as months expire: after Dec 26 goes into delivery, these become May 27 and Jul 27.

Above zero, the coffee is worth more sold physically than delivered to the exchange, so it stays out; below zero, tendering pays and it tends to come in for grading.

ICO 5 Nov 2026 against the NY ‘C’ front (277.15¢), US cents/lb. Physical diff. = ICO group indicator − NY (ex-dock US/EU averages; a stand-in until real offer differentials are logged). Tender diff. = rulebook Schedule C-2 origin differential for contracts from March 2026 (the May 2027 schedule raises Guatemala to +500 and Colombia, Costa Rica and Kenya to +1,000) + Schedule C-3 port differential at the origin's main certified port. Cert. costs = ICE grading at $1.50 a bag graded ÷ the origin's pass rate (every graded bag is charged) + 2.0¢ for sampling, weighing, load-in and moving the coffee (set in config). Not included: age deductions after 120 days, weight shrink and EU transition-stock discounts, which apply once coffee sits certified.

ICO group indicator prices (ex-dock US and Europe, so landing costs sit on top of FOB differentials and the lines run higher than origin quotes) against the NY front's monthly average. Bars: whichever ICO group is closest to its tender value at Antwerp (Other Milds at basis, Colombian Milds as Colombia +400, Brazilian Naturals −600; port −125). Above zero, even the cheapest group is worth more off the exchange than delivered, so certified stocks don't refill; below zero, coffee is cheap enough to tender. Group averages, not the single cheapest lot, so the bars are smoother than an offer-based view. Gaps: the ICO didn't publish Colombian Milds for most of 2022 and early 2024. Sources: ICO monthly reports and daily sheets, World Bank (Other Milds).

For a holder of exchange-grade coffee, when to sell rather than where: at today's Dec 26 price (tendered against Dec 26, or sold physically off it) against carrying it and delivering into Mar 27. Whether the exchange or the physical market pays more is the table above. Carrying earns the spread (negative in backwardation) and costs storage and financing at SOFR for the months between the two contracts, plus ICE's weight shrink allowance (0.5% in the second month after weighing and 0.125% a month after that; about 0.6% here). Certified coffee older than 120 days also loses 50 points or more (Appendix V). A carry wider than these costs is what pays a holder to wait.

Full carry = warehouse storage (0.65¢/lb a month, set in config) for the time between the two contracts' first notice days, plus financing the front price at SOFR (3.92%, New York Fed). The front contract rolls at first notice, as on the price chart. Spread history starts when the desk began storing each contract, so the trail grows as contracts roll. Delivery terms, origin and port differentials, and warehouse rules: ICE Coffee “C” rulebook (PDF).

From ICE's daily grading summary, all ports. Days to clear = bags awaiting grading ÷ bags graded a day at the recent pace; new arrivals add to the queue. A falling pass rate means the coffee being offered for certification is marginal.

Exports reach Antwerp, Hamburg and the US ports several weeks after they ship, so a run of high or low months here shows up in the import data, and the projection's “From imports” option, a month or more later. Brazil: Cecafé, arabica + conilon (about 10 days after month end); Colombia: FNC; Peru: BCRP; Nicaragua: BCN (green, instant excluded); Uganda: UCDA monthly report; India: Coffee Board export permits for green coffee (permits issued, not shipments, so they run a little ahead); others: UN Comtrade green coffee (HS 0901.11), typically two to three months behind. Origins marked stale haven't reported recently. Honduras, Venezuela, Rwanda and Papua New Guinea publish no current monthly exports, so their pipeline only shows in the import data.

ICE month-end figures by port, extended with the last daily report of each later month. Peak in this view: 2,490,352 bags (Mar 2019). Latest: 232,456 bags (Nov 2026). ‘C’ monthly closes start in 2000; Jun 1999 and Oct 2017 are missing from ICE's file.

Liquidated = share of the contract month's open interest the day before first notice that was closed out or rolled rather than delivered; it is recorded from Dec 26 on, as ICE only publishes open interest by contract month for the last seven trading days. % of all OI uses the CFTC's open interest across all months, as a floor on how rarely positions end in delivery. Curve = spread at the roll as % of full carry. Source: ICE delivery notices (growth and port totals at last notice day).